ABSTRACT

This chapter from the collected edition by Yongyut Trisurat, Rajendra P. Shrestha and Rob Alkemade (editors): "Land Use, Climate Change and Biodiversity Modeling: Perspectives and Applications" presents an integrated modeling approach for assessing land use changes and its effects on biodiversity.

A modeling framework consisting of a macro-economic model, a land use change model, and biodiversity indicator models is described and illustrated with a scenario study for the European Union. A reference scenario is compared to a scenario in which a number of possible policies for conservation and protection of biodiversity are assumed to have been implemented. The results are evaluated by an indicator of the habitat quality for biodiversity and an indicator of landscape connectivity.

The results illustrate that land use change has spatially diverse impacts on biodiversity. The effectiveness of the assumed policies is region and context dependent. The modeling framework can thus provide ex-ante assessments of policies and identify critical regions for biodiversity conservation and assist in targeting policies and incentives to protect biodiversity in vulnerable areas.